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ResearchOrbit Determination & Debris

3 / 5 — pages in this section

Orbit Determination & Debris

Finding fragments no catalogue lists, with honest error bars.

Updated Oct 20, 2026

along-track uncertainty ≫ cross-track3σ1σ optical observations (short arc) Drawn illustration of the idea, not measured data
Short observation arcs constrain the cross-track position well and the along-track position poorly.

The question

Thousands of fragments share low Earth orbit with working satellites. We estimate where uncatalogued pieces are from short optical and radar arcs — and, just as important, how wide the uncertainty around that estimate really is.

Methods, tools and data

DataCampus optical station (0.4 m), shared radar tracks
MethodAngles-only initial orbit determination, batch least squares
ModelsJ2–J4 gravity, atmospheric density with error bounds
OutputConjunction screening and reentry-window estimates

Representative papers

  1. 26

    “Short-arc orbit determination of uncatalogued fragments from a single optical site”

    M. Park+, D. Han+, T. Ilves, H. Cho*

    Orbital Debris Science, Vol. 9, Art. 104, 2026

    Intl. JournalOrbit Determination & Debris

    LINK 26PDF 26

  2. 25

    “Covariance realism for low-thrust conjunction screening below 600 km”

    D. Han, R. Okafor, H. Cho*

    Journal of Spaceflight Geometry, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 33–51, 2026

    Intl. JournalOrbit Determination & Debris

    LINK 25

  3. 18

    “Learning-free association of radar tracks to fragments after a breakup event”

    M. Park, H. Cho*

    Conference on Space Situational Awareness and Tracking (CSSAT 2025), Paper 25-061, 2025

    Intl. Conf.Orbit Determination & Debris

    LINK 18

All debris papers

People on this topic

  • Doyun Han Conjunction screening and covariance realism
  • Minjae Park Optical tracking of uncatalogued fragments
  • Nari Oh Reentry window prediction under density error

Other topics